Nov 9, 2007

Hot stove musings.

It was a difficult season for both Yankee fans and Met fans.

Yes, as a Mets fan, I imagine there was ‘the collapse’ that everyone was talking about - surprisingly enough, it hasn’t fazed me in the slightest.

Denial?

Maybe, although I don’t know why the whole ‘collapse’ thing didn’t really affect me, I have to say I enjoyed the season, was disappointed watching what happened at the end but, it didn’t happen in the last two weeks as much as the last six or seven weeks. They (the Mets) should have run away with the division by mid August and when they didn’t, well... you can’t be a true fan and be surprised by the way things turned out.

The Yankees?

Well, Joe Torre did probably the best job he ever did over the last ten years and still wound up getting fired. A-Rod is gone. And finally, the door has pretty much closed on the chapter of Yankee history that the team’s fans had been crowing about. Any real connection the Yankees had to the team that won four out of five World Series vanished when they fired Torre.

So, what now?

Well let’s talk about the Yankees first: A-Rod is gone and for all the attention given over to his departure, Yankee fans should be grateful. If you can’t win it all with a guy you’re paying 20 million chances are pretty good you can achieve the same results in his absence. Maybe this will signal a change in attitude on the part of Yankee management.

See, over the last six or seven years the Yankees went back to a form of management that never worked. In the eighties, Yankee management would regularly pursue the biggest name of the free agent market in the off-season. It was only when George got banished from baseball for a couple of years that Gene Michael was able to lay the foundation of what would become those great teams of the late 90’s.

If you think about those teams, what the Yankees managed to do was to build a team whose sum was greater than all it’s parts. Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius, Paul O’Neil were not marquee names when they arrived to play for the Yankees but, they would become integral to the teams success. The other things the Yankees were very good at during that period was getting one time All Star players late in their careers to play a supporting role.

Take a look at some of the names of guys who played off the Yankee bench over that period: Ruben Sierra, Jim Leyritz, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, Cecil Fielder, Andy Fox, Ruben Rivera, Mike Aldrete, Charlie Hayes, Luis Sojo, Pat Kelly, Jorge Posada, Dion James, Joe Girardi, Chili Davis, Ricky Ledee, Homer Bush, Shane Spencer, Dale Sveum, Mike Lowell, Tony Tarasco, D’Angelo Jimenez, Alfonso Soriano, David Justice, Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Jose Canseco, Luis Polonia, Ryan Thompson, Lance Johnson, Roberto Kelly.

Anyway, all the aforementioned players were for the most part players who had long major league careers and there are a few whose names should jump out at you. They were all bench players for the Yankees at some time over that period though!

Well... getting back to the hot stove.

The Yankees already have changed. Joe Torre is gone and Joe Girardi is now the manager. A-Rod is gone so there is a hole at third base. Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte are all free agents.

First there will be significant competition for the Yankee free agents. Mariano Rivera should be looking very, very attractive to the Detroit Tigers right about now and it wouldn’t at all surprise me if they didn’t make the Yankees overpay if they want to retain Mariano’s services.

Andy Pettitte while publicly stating that he would play for the Yankees or retire, should anticipate a very hefty offer from the Texas Rangers. Texas has one thing the Yankees don’t... location, location, location. Pettitte can stay pitching in the American League, be close to home, be a hero in his home state and bring significant stability to Texas’ rotation. It may not be something you’ve heard about but, the Rangers would be fools not to make Pettitte a offer to make him think twice about retiring.

Posada? Well, I have to think the Mets are chomping at the bit but speaking as a Mets fan, I would be fine having back Ramon Castro and Paul LoDuca. It’s a platoon that has worked well over the last few years and it doesn’t quite make that much sense to break it up now.

Where does that leave the Yankees?

First up, let‘s talk about a trade the Yankees should make. If Pettitte doesn’t wind up returning, the Yankees rotation going into next year looks something like this: Wang, Mussina and...? The Yankees need to fill a hole at third base but, to get something good you have to give up something good. So, let’s propose this trade for the Yankees - Phil Hughes, Shelley Duncan, Andy Phillips and Ross Ohlendorf for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

Second, let’s talk about some free agent signings the Yankees should think about making.

Sign Mike Piazza. Sign him for his New York marquee value, sign him as a backup catcher, dh and pinch hitter. He can hit home runs and he’s the kind of player coming of the bench that harkens back to the Yankee teams of the late 90’s. Sign Shannon Stewart, Stewart is another player that gives the Yankees a deeper bench and he can play either in center or left field. Look at a few pitchers to fill out the back end of the rotation and middle relief roles in the bullpen - names to be considered include: Jamey Wright, Kip Wells, David Riske, Jason Jennings and Joe Kennedy.

What about the Mets?

Well, the first thing the Mets have to do is to figure out who among their free-agents are coming back. All signs are pointing to Tom Glavine not returning, Paul LoDuca may not be back and neither may Ramon Castro, Jose Valentin is most likely gone as is Aaron Sele. Shawn Green could resign but not at what he was making. Mike DeFelice, Jeff Conine, Sandy Alomar Jr. are out the door but it seems as if the club will make the big push to keep Luis Castillo around.

Supposing the Mets sign Castillo, it means they are locked in for the most part in terms of all there starting position players aside from catcher. The infield is locked up and two of the three outfield positions are locked with a platoon going on in right field. As a matter of fact, the Mets outfield without them resigning Shawn Green will be made up of Moises Alou, Carlos Beltran, Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez. The infield will be Wright, Reyes, Castillo and Delgado. The biggest place the Mets will have to find some help is for their starting rotation and bullpen. They should make a big push for Jorge Posada and failing that give serious thought to bringing back their platoon of LoDuca and Castro.

Pitching is a bit of a thornier problem. As a Mets fan I have to admit to being happy to see what Joe Smith (a pleasant surprise) will look like in his sophomore season. The starting rotation at this moment is Martinez, Maine, Perez and question marks after that.

The bullpen working backward is structured around Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, the aforementioned Joe Smith and a bunch of suspect arms in Mota, Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa. Duaner Sanchez will be back but until he pitches you have no idea if he will be a capable bridge to the late innings again.

The Mets also have a few chips to play with in terms of trades and it’s more than likely that if they are going to manage to get anything it will be through a trade. The two prime targets of the Mets in this off-season should be Johan Santana and Erik Bedard in that order. Both the Twins and the Orioles are in a position where they would want back high potential/low contract players who if not immediately will be able to make an impact on the major league level within a year or two.

That being said who should be available for trade?

Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman are two players to start with and from there you get into an assortment of players including Anderson Hernandez, Scott Schoeneweis and a bunch of pitchers with potential in Willie Collazo, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey and Ambiorix Burgos. Mota should also be included in the batch of potential tradable players. A package of Milledge, Heilman and one of those young pitchers would make a good fit for the Twins. A slightly altered package of Milledge, Schoeneweis and Mota might be able to secure Bedard.

The Mets may also want to think about taking a chance on signing Eric Gagne and a look at Mark Redman.

Of course the only good thing about the winter and the lack of baseball is sitting around figuring out what your favorite team is going to look like next year and here in New York it is assured both major league teams will look significantly different!

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